Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
