Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
